Baerbock in conversation with SZ ++ Concern in Berlin and Brussels about French elections
Monday, 17th June
Good morning. I hope you enjoyed all the football over the weekend: here’s what BILD made of England’s performance last night (they were unimpressed with Bayern’s Harry Kane), complete with an entertaining vox-pop featuring English fans trying to pronounce German player’s names.
Anyway, here’s what’s making the news away from the Europameisterschaft:
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sits down with the Süddeutsche
The interview in today’s Süddeutsche covers a broad range of topics, many quite predictable.
On Ukraine, Baerbock reiterates the Greens’ support for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, a move currently being adamantly blocked by Chancellor Scholz due to the system’s range giving Ukraine the capability to hit deep into Russian territory.
Baerbock also reminds readers of the consequences of Ukrainian defeat: firstly, the costs would be ‘incalculable’ if ‘we have to defend our freedom and security ourselves’ . Secondly, she warns of the millions of Ukrainian refugees who would flow into the EU in the case of a total Russian occupation.
In response to a question about the AfD and BSW’s suspected links with Russia, she suggests that there has been ‘naivety’ over the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilise German democracy, and says she fears an ‘influence operation’ in next year’s federal elections.
On the hot topic of the budget, due to be agreed by 3rd July, Baerbock expressed confidence that her party, along with the SPD and FDP, could get a deal over the line by then. But on ‘debt brake’, the source of the major rift in the governing coalition at the moment, Baerbock advocates for emergency exceptions for defence, infrastructure and digitalisation, adding that:
It would be disastrous to have to say in a few years' time: We saved the debt brake, but lost Ukraine and the peaceful order in Europe.
Concern in Brussels, Berlin and Frankfurt over French election
Handelsblatt covers the increasing concern in the EU leadership, as well as in the political and financial centres of Germany, over the potentially destabilising effects of the French election to be held on 30th June and 7th July.
A German government official is quoted saying “Macron is a gambler, and he’s taking a huge risk with this decision”. Handelblatt’s authors themselves describe the French President as ‘Europe’s greatest source of instability’ at the moment.
This uncertainty is manifesting itself in rapid rises in the yields on French 10-year bonds, reminiscent of the mass panic on the gilt market following Liz Truss’ ‘fiscal event’ in October 2022. In fact, the article quotes Gergely Polner of the consulting firm Forefront Advisers suggesting that RN’s leader Marine Le Pen would do well to follow Giorgia Meloni’s example rather than Truss if she is to win the Presidency in 2027.
The risk, according to Handelsblatt, comes not just from the potential of big gains for the far-right and RN’s Jordan Bardella being installed as Prime Minister. Investors also fear the ‘New People’s Front’, a bloc of left-wing parties now standing on one ticket (its candidates include ex-president François Hollande), which is now thought to be in second place behind RN.
Berlin’s main concern remains the prospect of an RN-dominated National Assembly and Premiership.
The SPD’s Foreign Spokesman Nils Schmid is quoted as saying:
"An extreme right-wing government in France would call into question all existing and proven formats of Franco-German cooperation - from the Aachen Treaty to joint armaments projects."
The authors adds that "in Berlin, people still remember what Le Pen wrote in the past about Franco-German cooperation in Europe: "Berlin is not the right partner for Paris."