Brandenburg goes to the polls tomorrow: what to expect
Saturday 21st September
Good morning.
Tomorrow, Brandenburg, the state surrounding Berlin, will go to the polls to elect a new state Parliament. Like the elections in Saxony and Thuringia earlier this month, this has been long anticipated as a potential breakthrough for the AfD. This would be especially bitter blow for the SPD, and in particular for the party’s long-standing state leader and Brandenburg’s Minister-President, Dietmar Woidke. More below.
First, the latest ‘poll of polls’:
In short, if the polls are right, it’s not looking good. The AfD are set to be the largest party by three-ish points. Of the ‘mainstream’ parties, only the SPD, which has been the largest party in Brandenburg at every election since reunification, and the centre-right CDU make it over the 5% ‘hurdle’ to take seats in the Landtag. Similar to Saxony and Thuringia, the BSW, only just behind the CDU, will be in a position of power as their seats will be required for the ‘Grand Coalition’ (SPD and CDU) to form a majority.
If Brandenburg goes the way of Thuringia and ‘falls’ to the AfD, this will have grave consequences for the SPD, for whom the state has long been an absolute stronghold. Dietmar Woidke, who has governed the state as SPD ‘Minister-President’ for 11 years straight, has said that if the AfD comes first, he will resign. Woidke is gambling, much like Emmanuel Macron in July, that faced with the possibility of losing an effective governor, voters will shy away from using the AfD as a protest vote. This has been seen as a courageous gamble which may still pay off (see the FAZ’s Thomas Holl’s excellent column, for instance), but it will leave the state in shock and drift if it comes to pass, as seems more than likely.
As much as this very much raises the stakes of an AfD victory, ultimately, however, I think the key thing to watch is the BSW. The ‘firewall’ against parties cooperating with the AfD, so far, seems to be holding, making it immaterial for the actual makeup of the state government whether the party comes first or second. The BSW, however, will likely be in the same position as they were in Saxony and Thuringia: with the mainstream parties relying on them to supply a majority, they will have real power to shape policy.
How much power they’ll have exactly remains unclear. Of course, if the Greens do manage to get over the 5% hurdle, this will dilute their position as kingmakers. But it is remarkable that a splinter group, formed only a year ago and still largely a one-woman show, has achieved this level of success. That ‘insurgent’ parties can do this in such a short period demonstrates just how fissile and volatile German politics is becoming.
Tune into the BBC World Service at 9.20am tomorrow for more
A brief piece of self-promotion: if you want to hear more, I’m due to appear on the BBC World Service tomorrow morning at 9.20am to preview the election. I’d be delighted to know that some Dispatches readers are tuning in! See you there.