Labour wins, Tories 'massacred': Scholz seeks 'new alliance' with Britain

Friday 5th July

Good afternoon.

Labour has won the General Election. The German press are describing the result as a ‘landslide’, an ‘earthquake’, and a ‘massacre’ for the Conservatives, who have suffered the worst defeat in their history. There is a flurry of articles from across the major papers, though most of it is largely contextual, covering the essentials of the result and giving some background and colour for German readers who may not have been following too closely.

This post concentrates on pieces which get at the key question: how do the Germans now see their country’s relationship with the UK developing after this dramatic change of government— especially the UK’s relationship with the EU?

After this, I also add a brief outline of my own thoughts about how Labour has a great opportunity to build a new close relationship with Germany, if it is prepared to be bold.

Scholz greets success of SPD’s ‘sister party’, seek ‘new alliance’ with Britain.

Die Zeit’s Angelika Finkenwirth reported this morning:

“The German Chancellor has expressed his delight at the election victory of the Social Democratic sister party in the UK. When asked whether he sees himself in a new alliance with the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz answered in the affirmative. He knows Starmer personally and has met with him several times, said the Chancellor, adding that he wanted to further develop relations with the British. Of course, it was not a bad thing if social cohesion, modernisation of the economy and new beginnings were also a major topic in the UK.”

FAZ: “What does a Labour win mean for Germany and Europe?”

The liberal-conservative paper’s London correspondent Johannes Leithäuser includes this question in a piece entitled “What you need to know about the British election”:

A quick revision of the Brexit decision is not to be expected. Labour's election victory would initially primarily have atmospheric consequences: new faces would be at the negotiating table on both the British and possibly also the Brussels side if talks were held on customs facilitation or easier travel options for pupils and students. The presumed new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced that he wants to negotiate with the EU primarily on a cooperation agreement in security and defence policy.

Handelsblatt: “EU relieved about Labour victory in Great Britain”

This from Handelsblatt is by far the most interesting article I’ve seen on the reaction of German and European leaders so far to Labour’s victory. It continues to emphasise the speculation in Berlin and Brussels over what a Labour government may mean for the UK-EU relationship, a theme of much of the coverage of the election campaign itself (see one of my GE review posts covering this, here).

Handelsblatt’s Carsten Volkery gives details of a conversation with Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliamentary Trade Committee (SPD):

"(Lange) said that British voters had shown the Tories the red card. “The signs are now pointing to change.” These are the best conditions for future relations between the UK and the EU. A lot of trust had been lost among the Tories.

However, the Europeans should not be "naive", as Starmer is also moving within "domestic political guard rails", said Lange. Shortly before the election, the Labour leader emphasised once again that the UK would not return to the European single market or the customs union. This sets narrow limits on economic policy cooperation."

Volkery also quotes the (very obviously) dual-national Chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee David McAllister (CDU), who encouraged Starmer and EU leaders to take the opportunity to reset relations and make progress on issues such as educational exchanges like the Erasmus programme, and to work towards a closer UK-EU security arrangement.

On this latter point, Volkery then mentions the potential a security cooperation agreement might hold as a starting point for closer relations. A ‘structured dialogue’ on security issues might yield a situation in which British firms could participate in European defence strategy with a ‘guest status’ in the EU. From an EU perspective, the initiative for an involved ‘security pact’ must come from Starmer, Handelsblatt says. “The question”, Volkery says, “is whether he now wants to utilise his political capital for closer relations with the EU”.

COMMENT: These comments, especially those from Scholz, come at a time when Germany is on the search for a new closest ally in Europe. France is teetering on the edge of a far-right, Eurosceptic government, and German politicians from across the main parties are reacting with horror and disgust, and demanding action from the Chancellor to take a leading role in European affairs.

As a result, Scholz is now looking to build up an alliance of progressive leaders to counter the rise of the far right across the continent. Last week, he was in Poland with 11 of his ministers to visit the new left-liberal Polish government, recently victorious after years of the far-right PiS. He was quoted as saying that he wanted a “strong Polish voice in Europe” (read: a new best friend in Europe now that France is succumbing to the RN).

If Labour is bold, it has an opportunity to present the UK as another close, reliable partner for Germany at a very turbulent time in Europe. There is good will towards this new government, and it should be seized. This work can begin, as has been suggested, in creating a much closer security regime with Germany and the EU in general. But this will take real work and —as Volkery says— valuable political capital.

It will be interesting to see where Scholz falls in the order of phone calls to foreign leaders which Starmer will make in the coming hours. I would suspect him to be 3rd on the list, behind Biden and Macron, but let’s see.