'The last nail in the coffin': Germany's press reacts to 'breakthrough' elections for AfD, BSW in Thuringia & Saxony
Tuesday 3rd September
Sunday saw the long-awaited (and widely dreaded) state elections in the East German states of Thuringia and Saxony. The results show a terrible performance for the parties of the ‘traffic light’ coalition, and a very strong performance for the far-right AfD and ‘left conservative’ Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with the latter succeeding particularly at the expense of Die Linke’s traditionally strong vote in Thuringia.
For a detailed breakdown of the results, and some illuminating graphs, maps and polls on their context, I’d recommend a look at Adam Tooze’s Chartbook from Sunday.
Results in Thuringia
Results in Saxony
The AfD came first in Thuringia, gaining 32.8% of the vote, and a close second in Saxony, taking 30.6% to the CDU’s 31.9%. In Thuringia the party has achieved a ‘blocking minority’ (Sperrminorität), meaning that the party can block the passing of measures requiring a larger majority in parliament, such as the appointment of judges. This was narrowly avoided in Saxony.
What is striking is the high turnout on which these results are based. Just short of 75% of the electorate turned up in both states, representing an increase of over 8% on the 2019 turnout in each. This is not a case of fringe parties benefitting from apathy, but rather a positive endorsement.
The press reaction in the country at large is a mix of dismay, frustration with the governing coalition in Berlin, whose ineffectiveness is being blamed for the results. and increasingly turning to some analysis and scrutiny of the two states’ potential new government.
This analysis is directed less at the AfD, who are still unlikely to govern in either state as the ‘firewall’ against them leaves them with no potential coalition partners (for now…?), and more at the BSW. The ‘start-up’ splinter party, formed last year and largely still a one-woman show (as the name suggets) finds itself in the highly likely position of governing in both states along with the CDU. More below.
BILD: How loud do voters have to protest?
BILD, Germany’s most widely read paper, continues to take aim at the federal ‘traffic light’ coalition, interpreting the results as ‘protest’ against their ineffectiveness and repeating the paper’s increasingly ill-tempered demand for the coalition to end.
“SPD crash, Green debacle, FDP catastrophe - was there something in this? Apparently not. Numerous top politicians are talking as usual. You have to listen to the voters more in future, simply explain your own policies better. And so on... Seriously? How loudly should voters protest against the traffic light policy? Are two record AfD results still not enough?”
In fact, the tabloid’s editorial line now seems to be to advocate for Germany’s President, to ‘intervene’.
“So far, Frank-Walter Steinmeier has remained surprisingly silent in this crisis - even though he has proclaimed himself a champion of a vibrant democracy. Steinmeier must take the leaders of the coalition government to task and make it clear to them: that’s enough! Otherwise the SPD, Greens and FDP will destroy what we are all proud of: our vibrant and stable democracy.”
Süddeutsche Zeitung: The demise of the ‘traffic light’ heralds a new, chaotic normality
The left-liberal Süddeutsche’s Nicolas Richter also interprets the results from a national perspective, similarly declaring the current government responsible for the rise in support for extreme parties, and pronouncing it as good as dead.
“The SPD has become too enthusiastic about its social benefits and lost sight of illegal migration in the process. The Greens have made themselves impossible with their home heating law (Heizungsgesetz), which was perceived as overbearing. And the FDP has dwarfed itself into a one-trick debt brake party with the appeal of an Excel spreadsheet. Scholz, on the other hand, is trying unflinchingly to be a knowledgeable moderator, but is no longer inspiring confidence.”
Richter says that, rather than expecting this to produce any substantive change to the current malaise, he thinks Germany faces a “lost year”. The coalition will trudge on, but “new ideas and strength from the traffic light are unlikely”. They will avoid any hint of an early election, however, because the “fiasco” which will follow for the SPD/Greens/Liberals “is foreseeable”. But more profoundly, the paper suggests that Germany is becoming increasingly ungovernable in general.
“The demise of the traffic light system and its consequences […] reveal a new, chaotic normality: in fragmented parliaments with strong populist and extremist forces, governing is likely to become increasingly complicated and governments more short-lived. Friedrich Merz will also experience this in a year's time if he wins the Bundestag elections as the CDU/CSU's candidate for chancellor.”
BSW in the spotlight
Wirtschaftswoche has a good account of how the CDU is approaching their potential new partners in government in Thuringia and Saxony: the BSW.
The new leftist party has made a point recently of suggesting that support for their ‘critical’ policy on Ukraine (no more military aid, demand immediate peace negotiations) and the stationing of US missiles on German soil would be a precondition for any coalition agreement, even on the state level. This is despite the fact that the states, unsurprisingly, have no influence on German foreign and defence policy. The piece has an excellent quote from CDU national leader Friedrich Merz on this:
“The BSW, said Merz, is the "cadre party of a person who has made pronouncements on world politics in these two state parliamentary election campaigns. […] I don't know what this party has to say about the sewage charges in Thuringia and Saxony," said Merz. And added, pointing to (CDU leaders in Thuringia and Kretschmer and Voigt: "They don't know either."”
The problem is, as the article outlines, that a pact with the BSW may be entirely unpalatable and impractical, but the CDU may have very little choice.
See also
A small bit of self-promotion: I was on the BBC yesterday, not once, but twice discussing the elections, including on The World Tonight on the BBC News Channel! You can listen back to my interview with BBC Radio Scotland here (skip to 1:43:00). I’m trying to get a full clip of my TV interview but no joy so far (do let me know if you find/have it or know how I can). Also, if you’ve found this newsletter after seeing or hearing those appearances— welcome! I’m delighted to see any and all new readers and subscribers.
FAZ: ‘Who does the Peaceful Revolution belong to?’
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) turn to a historian for perspective on the BSW and East Germany. Stephan Stach, historian of East-Central Europe at the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe, Leipzig, considers the BSW’s controversial co-option of the language and symbolism of East Germany’s ‘peaceful revolution’ in 1989. Several of the leaders of that period, which precipitated the fall of the East German regime, have signed an open letter condemning the party for its use of slogans and mottos from the time to call for an end to support for Ukraine. Stach suggests that the revolution’s legacy was always contested, and needs to be discussed and taught more widely to ensure it isn’t lost to ‘spokespeople for the Kremlin’.