FDP declares 'Autumn of Decisions', considers position in federal coalition ++ CDU reluctant to join govt negotiations in Brandenburg
Tuesday 24th September
Good morning.
The effects — for both state and federal politics — of Sunday’s results in Brandenburg are beginning to take shape. The Liberal FDP, currently a member of the federal government, gained only 0.8% of the vote on Sunday. It seems that this may provide the party with the excuse to walk out of the government they have been looking for.
Meanwhile, in Brandenburg itself, the CDU (12.1%) appears to be reluctant to accept the SPD’s (30.9%) offer of talks to form the state government alongside the BSW (13.5%).
Liberals considering position in Berlin’s ‘traffic light’ in ‘autumn of decisions’
Tagesspiegel and the SZ both lead this morning with reports suggesting that the FDP are considering their position in the federal government after Sunday’s drubbing (though this just feels to me like a pretext for something they’ve been looking to do for a while). FDP leader Christian Lindner has declared the next few weeks to be an ‘autumn of decisions’1 for both his party and the coalition.
FDP officials gave some interesting quotes to reporters yesterday. “I am ready to jump”, Tagesspiegel reports Lindner saying, only to reveal that this supposedly referred to being ready to work on new legislation:
“"Some things are on the way," says Lindner, now a master of double messages. "Courage is now required from everyone," says the Finance Minister. Either the courage to work in a controversial coalition if good things can be achieved for the country. If you reach the limits of what is necessary and do not meet the country's expectations, "then it takes courage to ignite a new dynamic". So: for the time being, courage for traffic lights. With the proviso of having the courage to leave the government one day.”
Linder’s deputy leader, Wolfgang Kubicki, gave a more direct appraisal:
"Either the traffic light shows that it can draw the necessary conclusions from these elections, or it ceases to exist," Kubicki told reporters.
This will take place over "a matter of a few weeks. We're not going to wait until Christmas. We can't put the country through this."
I think the consensus is that this coalition has been effectively dead for months, but may drag on simply out of each party’s fear of the results of an earlier election. But if the FDP realise that it has nothing more to gain from hanging on, they could finally bring the coalition down. The SPD, by contrast, buoyed by their win in Brandenburg, may suddenly be finding some courage to go to the country. And the Greens’ chair Omid Nouripour also said somewhat cryptically yesterday that a “big feng shui moment” between the three coalition partners — presumably meaning ‘agreement’ — “won’t come again” But we have been here several times before, and it could all amount to nothing. Mal schauen.
Woidke offers coalition talks to BSW and a reluctant CDU
One coalition (potentially) ends, another begins. Brandenburg’s victorious SPD leader Dietmar Woidke has extended invitations to the BSW and CDU to discuss forming a government. The CDU, which came fourth behind the SPD, AfD and BSW, seems to be reluctant to consider the offer.
"To be honest, I don't know what we are supposed to discuss in these talks," said CDU General Secretary Gordon Hoffmann in Potsdam. "There is no government mandate for us. There is no majority for the SPD and CDU."
Meanwhile, the BSW, as in Saxony and Thuringia, finds itself holding all the cards. Their leader in Brandenburg, Robert Crumbach, who was a Social Democrat for over 40 years, has remained ambiguous about what he wants. He told the F.A.Z. that his party does not want a three-party alliance, but depending on the outcome of the talks, he believes that “tolerating the SPD and CDU is possible, as is a government of SPD and BSW.” He told Deutschlandfunk radio that he’s happy to wait for the SPD-CDU talks to conclude before making his move. His party's focus is on a “change in style in politics”; in Brandenburg is on education policy, municipal finances and a “peace policy” towards Russia, including a no to the stationing of US intermediate-range missiles in Germany, which he says “endanger our security” and are opposed by two-thirds of Brandenburg’s citizens, and reminds the SPD of “Willy Brandt’s détente policy” in the 1970s.
Of course, there is also Wagenknecht herself to consider. The party’s leader has met the CDU leaders in Saxony and Thuringia personally as part of each state’s coalition talks.
This feels like a strong contender for the direct opposite of brat summer— send in your alternatives!