French elections 'a glimpse into bleak future'; Germany partly to blame, says SPD foreign affairs committee chair

Monday 1st July

Good morning.

The German papers are reacting to the results of the first round of elections to the French National Assembly, already being roundly described as ‘historic’. Beyond their historicity, though, I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say that the Germans are horrified by RN’s success, and now largely disgusted by Macron’s apparent shortsightedness. I’ve tried to keep this post brief, but there’s lots to discuss.

Firstly, turnout in this first round (67%) is the highest seen in France since the 1980s. The far-right Rassmblement Nationale, led by Marine Le Pen, have won by a clear margin, with 33% of the vote nationally. President Macron’s Ensemble coalition is in third on 21%, behind the Nouveau Front Populaire, a large bloc of left parties running through from the Socialists and to the Greens through to the Communists, who stand on 28%. Today’s Guardian has a good explainer on what happens next, but the major question for Macron now is whether to stand down Ensemble candidates who have made it into the final round of voting in third place, in order to give the NFP a clear run and set up a ‘republican front’ against the RN.

Zeit and FAZ report ashen-faced German political reaction

Both papers (see Zeit here, and FAZ here) quote the reactions of Green Party co-leader Ricarda Lang and the Chair of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee Michael Roth (SPD).

‘Macron miscalculated with his move to call new elections and has now probably contributed to strengthening the far right’, the Green leader is quoted as saying.

"I believe that short-sighted decisions cannot go far," Lang continues, drawing parallels with Germany. We need to act with prudence and "always think about the next step in politics, especially in our role in Germany".

Meanwhile, Michael Roth is described as ‘seeing a share of responsibility being held by the German government’ for RN’s rise.

‘"We have not asked ourselves enough how we can better support the pro-European, liberal President Macron," the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee told Politico. "We take too little account of political debates and problems in other countries." The alternative to Macron is "no longer Sarkozy, but a staunch right-wing nationalist like Marine Le Pen." Should she take power, this would also have dramatic consequences for Germany, Roth warned. "France is the heart of a united Europe. If this heart no longer beats powerfully, the EU is threatened with a heart attack."’

Süddeutsche Zeitung: ‘France stands before historic turning point’

Paris correspondent Oliver Meiler’s analysis of the first round of voting is front and centre in today’s SZ, Germany’s leading left-liberal paper. He puts the results in historic terms.

“France is shifting further to the right than ever before in its modern history: a historic turning point is emerging in the life of the Republic.”

Meiler mentions the threat that an absolute RN majority would pose to European foreign and security policy (especially Ukraine), with Le Pen insisting that Macron’s role as chef des armées is just an ‘honorary title’, and that the Prime Minister (who could by next week be RN’s Jordan Bardella) holds the purse-strings on military spending.

He also explains that even if an absolute majority is avoided, France still faces trouble ahead:

If neither camp (RN or NFP) achieves an absolute majority, the parliament would be blocked. This would present France with a new challenge: The country does not have the kind of coalition culture needed to forge broad alliances. There have also never been non-party cabinets of experts in Paris. And Macron will not be able to dissolve parliament for another year.

Die Zeit: ‘A glimpse into our bleak future’

The well-respected liberal-conservative broadsheet published this long essay by Nils Markwardt, late last night. Markwardt reflects on the importance and impact of these elections beyond France, describing the result as a moment in which we see the emergence of a new age in European politics. The new far right has succeeded in its mission to ‘pulverise’ the centre-right. Through a process of ‘dédiabolisation’ the RN has been making itself more palatable to the middle class, while forcing more moderate, main-stream parties to engage in a more and more extreme rhetoric on issues such as migration and integration. On this last point Markwardt cites political scientist Thomas Biebricher, who says that centre-right attempts at ‘mimicry’ are doomed to fail as, given the choice between a studied radicalism and the real thing, voters will always eventually turn to the latter.

Markwardt then turns to the question of the AfD. Although Germany’s own scandal-ridden far-right party has, he says, actually been a ‘godsend’ for Le Pen’s ‘dédiabolisation’ strategy in recent months, they too show signs of using the same playbook. He compares the ‘biographical liberalism’ of AfD leader Alice Weidel (a lesbian) and Jordan Bardella (a man from the Banlieue of Italian-Algerian descent) as signals to voters that their parties must not be quite so extreme if they have such figures leading them.

Ultimately, Markwardt suggests that the ultimate blame lies with Macron’s ‘post-ideological’ experiment, which ‘no longer seems like solution-orientated pragmatism to many, but rather a headless zigzagging through events’.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: ‘Macron’s self-inflicted debacle’

The liberal-conservative daily’s foreign affairs editor Nikolas Busse is scathing in his criticism of Macron. He says that the President ‘is receiving his dues in the first round of voting for his headless reaction to the European elections’. ‘France could become a difficult partner in the EU and NATO’, and this would be celebrated ‘not least in Moscow’.

Macron's strategic ideas have always been open to doubt, even though he had a considerable fan base in Germany in particular. However, a president who jeopardises his majority in parliament without need will certainly not be able to hope for a merciful entry in the history books.

The result of the first round of the parliamentary elections, which he so hastily organised, is a debacle for his electoral alliance. Coming a distant third, there is little chance that Macron's party will be able to provide the next prime minister. How he intends to bring his term of office to a successful conclusion is a mystery.

What to watch for in the coming days

It’s hardly surprising, but I will be keeping a close eye on the reaction of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. I wonder if he will make any interventions at all before the second round. The key thing is whether or not Scholz will agree to work with RN officials in a new government, or adopt the same ‘firewall’ strategy as applies to the AfD.

Also key will be any reactions, either with their words or their money, from Germany’s key figures in business and finance. French bond yields have already been skyrocketing under concerns about either an RN or a NFP-dominated government. Handelsblatt will have the best insight on this. Watch this space.